One of the many casualties of the government shutdown is the critical jobs report administered by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—and much maligned by President Donald Trump—which economists say is especially needed in light of predictions that the US could soon enter a recession.
The BLS data, which features estimates of employment and earnings nationwide from the previous month, offers important information on the state of the economy for economists, policymakers, government officials, and employers. It was due to be released Friday, but the Department of Labor (DOL), which oversees BLS, said in its contingency plan that no data would be released during the shutdown. Trump politicized the report back in August, when he baselessly alleged that poor jobs numbers were evidence of “rigged” data and subsequently fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Paul Schroeder, co-chair of the Friends of the BLS, a nonpartisan group of organizations and individuals that support the agency, said on Wednesday that the employment data was “more critical now than in normal times.” That’s due to both the massive impacts of Trump’s tariffs and the large revisions to BLS data released last month, which showed that almost a million fewer jobs had been created than previously thought in the 12-month period prior to March 2025. Those revisions, Schroeder added, mean “the economy is changing, and that’s what’s concerning.”
“Unfortunately, it looks like it’s going the wrong direction, not the right direction, and that’s why we need this data now,” said Schroeder, who is also executive director of the Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics. “People are on edge at the moment, economists are trying to figure out what’s going on and to lose this source of data at this critical time, it’s just a real problem.”
Erica Groshen, who served as BLS commissioner from 2013 to 2017, agreed with Schroeder, saying that “it’s a particularly fraught time because of the economic conditions right now.”
It’s unclear if the data will be released when the government re-opens, though economists hope it will. The DOL’s contingency plan says the data release would “likely be delayed if a lapse is prolonged.” Following a 16-day shutdown in 2013, BLS released the information when the government was back up and running, Groshen said.
The limited data we do have is not promising: A report released Wednesday by ADP showed that there was a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs last month, and that a prior estimate of 54,000 jobs added in August was adjusted to a loss of 3,000 jobs.
The future of the BLS is also uncertain after the White House withdrew Trump’s nominee to be its new commissioner on Tuesday. Trump named E.J. Antoni—a conservative economist at the Heritage Foundation, an architect of Project 2025, and longtime BLS critic—as his pick to run the agency after firing McEntarfer. Antoni’s nomination was controversial from the jump, as I previously explained:
Economists have called him “completely unqualified,” “an extreme partisan,” and “disastrously terrible.” Stan Veuger, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told Axios that Antoni’s work at the Heritage Foundation “frequently included elementary errors or nonsensical choices that all bias his findings in the same partisan direction.”
A look at Antoni’s public statements, writings, and politics suggest that, if confirmed, he will likely help remake the BLS—a wonky, heretofore nonpartisan agency housed within the Department of Labor (DOL)—in Trump’s image.
Unsurprisingly, then, some greeted the news that Antoni would not be in the running to lead the BLS as welcome. The Friends of the BLS said in a statement released on Tuesday that the next nominee “should demonstrate a commitment to gold standard statistics, strong management skills, excellent economics training, and a record of public support for the integrity of BLS products and standards.”
Groshen, who is also co-chair of the Friends of BLS, added that “the next BLS commissioner is going to face a very daunting job,” pointing to problems including understaffing, attacks from the Trump administration, and longstanding challenges to data collection.
“The agency will be better served the more that a new commissioner has a really deep grounding in economics and federal statistics, a commitment to following the principles and practices that make the statistics trustworthy, and the ability to protect the agency right from meddling and from unwarranted attack,” Groshen said.
Kevin Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement on Tuesday that Antoni’s “immense capabilities and insightful economic analysis have not changed—and we are very proud to have him on our team.”
“It is undeniable that BLS needs reform and [Antoni] was the right man for the job,” Roberts wrote, adding that Antoni “will keep calling for that reform.”
Spokespeople for the White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Mother Jones on Wednesday. An automated reply said responses could be delayed due to the government shutdown, adding, “As you await a response, please remember this could have been avoided if the Democrats voted for the clean Continuing Resolution to keep the government open.”
Such messages have become commonplace across the federal government—even though they may violate the Hatch Act, which prohibits engaging in political activity while in office. As Wired reported, the websites of several agencies blame the shutdown on Democrats, and employees at the Small Business Administration (SBA) were also told to blame Democrats in their out-of-office email responses. Additionally, emails viewed by Mother Jones show that the Office of Management and Budget also directed DOL employees to set out-of-office messages blaming Democrats for the shutdown.
Groshen said she was “pretty shocked” to see reports of the out-of-office messages instructing federal employees to blame Democrats.
To Schroeder, both the shutdown and the politicization of the BLS and similar agencies are “really damaging to our nation’s data infrastructure.”
“This damages the reputation of the independence and trustworthiness of the federal statistics that BLS puts out,” he added.
This post has been syndicated from Mother Jones, where it was published under this address.